Bottom-Up Forecast
Built from channel-level assumptions and reconciled with the GTM pipeline plan — a reverse waterfall from pipeline targets down to the lead volume every channel owes each week. Adopted Aug 25: the model covers both MQL and non-MQL (outbound-passed) lead types, normalized as P1 leads (hand-raisers: demo, pricing, meeting request) and P2 leads (everything else passed to SDRs), each at its own conversion rate.
Q3 FY27 targets (goal cascade v10.1)
| Goal | Q3 target |
|---|---|
| Marketing-sourced pipeline | $21.5M · 345 SAOs · 75/25 new logo vs expansion |
| — Digital | $10.8M — paid $2.8M · non-paid $8.0M |
| — Field Marketing | $10.8M — regional events $6.5M · webinars $2.7M · direct mail $1.6M |
| Hand-raisers (P1) | 1,050 → 735 MQLs at the accept rate |
| SDR-ready leads | ~1,040 vs the 904 handoff target |
| Product funnel | 70,000 sign-ups → 17,000 keys → 1,050 paying |
| Paid efficiency | Pipe-to-spend on paid: 1.1x → ≥1.8x |
Reading the numbers: targets, not forecasts — every rate is an adjustable lever, and figures under review live in the number-review register, never here. Ownership is deliberate: the model belongs to Marketing Ops so it reads as the organization's plan, not one team's spreadsheet. Weekly pacing (13 weeks × channel) lives in the model; the API-reporting build and this forecast run as two separate tracks with their own PRDs.